MODELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROCESSES USING THE EXAMPLE OF SYPHILITIC INFECTION

About the author:	
Bondarenko G.M., Povoroznyuk A.I., Nikitenko I.M., Bezruchenko O.A.,
 Gubenko T.V.	
Heading	EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES	
Type of article	Scientific Article	
Annotation	Objective: Detection of trend, its analytical description and forecasting of time series 
for short-term and long-term periods for modeling the development of epidemiological
 processes in syphilitic infection.
Materials and methods: MATLAB application package was used to develop an 
automatic analysis system for time series monitoring of the development of 
epidemiological processes for their forecasting. The Financial Toolbox library was
 used to analyze time series.
Results: Mathematical models of trends were obtained for the existing time series, 
and the effectiveness of using an exponential trend in the declining phase of the
 syphilis epidemic was shown. The coefficient of determination R2 = 0.9956 indicates 
that the model explains 99.56% of the variance (the approximation error is 0.44%). 
However, such high accuracy of approximation (and accordingly,forecast accuracy) 
is true only if a new outbreak of the epidemic is unlikely during the forecast period.
 If the real data start deviating from the forecast (increase to at least 10,000 cases
 per year), a new wave of the infection process can be detected..	
Tags	modeling, epidemiological processes, syphilis, time series forecasting	
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Publication of the article	«DERMATOLOGY AND VENEREOLOGY» №1(99), 2023 year, 25-29 pages,
	
DOI	10.33743/2308-1066-2023-1-25-29